Knockout Math
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Beşiktaş vs Union SG: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 18:45

Beşiktaş4th, 3 pts
–Matchday 7
Union SG5th, 3 pts
41%Beşiktaş win
26%Draw
33%Union SG win

The model gives Beşiktaş a 41% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Union SG 33%. Beşiktaş's chance of going through is 85% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 74%. Union SG's chance of going through is 92% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 87%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Beşiktaş: top 8Beşiktaş: throughUnion SG: top 8Union SG: through
Now25%85%40%92%
Beşiktaş win40%95%25%87%
Draw20%84%38%93%
Union SG win12%74%61%98%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–08%

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