Knockout Math
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Celtic vs Marseille: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 21:00

Celtic28th, 0 pts
–Matchday 7
Marseille32nd, 0 pts
32%Celtic win
26%Draw
42%Marseille win

The model gives Celtic a 32% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Marseille 42%. Celtic's chance of going through is 52% now: a win would take it to 73%, a defeat to 38%. Marseille's chance of going through is 82% now: a win would take it to 93%, a defeat to 70%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Celtic: top 8Celtic: throughMarseille: top 8Marseille: through
Now6%52%22%82%
Celtic win13%73%9%70%
Draw4%51%16%80%
Marseille win2%38%36%93%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–09%
1–29%
0–07%
2–17%

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