Knockout Math
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Lillestrøm vs Bournemouth: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 18:45

Lillestrøm24th, 0 pts
–Matchday 7
Bournemouth12th, 3 pts
19%Lillestrøm win
23%Draw
58%Bournemouth win

The model gives Lillestrøm a 19% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Bournemouth 58%. Lillestrøm's chance of going through is 15% now: a win would take it to 33%, a defeat to 9%. Bournemouth's chance of going through is 97% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 91%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Lillestrøm: top 8Lillestrøm: throughBournemouth: top 8Bournemouth: through
Now<1%15%57%97%
Lillestrøm win2%33%34%91%
Draw<1%16%46%96%
Bournemouth win<1%9%69%99%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–07%
0–36%

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