Knockout Math
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AZ Alkmaar vs GNK Dinamo: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 21:00

AZ Alkmaar25th, 0 pts
–Matchday 7
GNK Dinamo19th, 1 pts
54%AZ Alkmaar win
24%Draw
22%GNK Dinamo win

The model gives AZ Alkmaar a 54% chance of winning, a draw 24% and GNK Dinamo 22%. AZ Alkmaar's chance of going through is 75% now: a win would take it to 86%, a defeat to 55%. GNK Dinamo's chance of going through is 54% now: a win would take it to 77%, a defeat to 43%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

AZ Alkmaar: top 8AZ Alkmaar: throughGNK Dinamo: top 8GNK Dinamo: through
Now14%75%6%54%
AZ Alkmaar win22%86%2%43%
Draw8%68%6%56%
GNK Dinamo win4%55%14%77%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%

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