Knockout Math
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Slavia Praha vs Arsenal: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Wednesday 4 November, 21:00

Slavia Praha22nd, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
Arsenal15th, 3 pts
12%Slavia Praha win
18%Draw
70%Arsenal win

The model gives Slavia Praha a 12% chance of winning, a draw 18% and Arsenal 70%. Slavia Praha's chance of going through is 21% now: a win would take it to 48%, a defeat to 16%. Arsenal's top-8 chance is 77% now: a win would take it to 85%, a defeat to 51%. The most likely score is 0–2 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Slavia Praha: top 8Slavia Praha: throughArsenal: top 8Arsenal: through
Now<1%21%77%>99%
Slavia Praha win2%48%51%99%
Draw<1%25%63%99%
Arsenal win<1%16%85%100%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–213%
0–111%
1–210%
0–39%
1–19%
1–37%

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