Barcelona vs Aston Villa: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Tuesday 3 November, 21:00
Barcelona3rd, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Aston Villa11th, 3 pts
61%Barcelona win
22%Draw
17%Aston Villa win
The model gives Barcelona a 61% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Aston Villa 17%. Barcelona's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 98%. Aston Villa's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 93%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Barcelona: top 8 | Barcelona: through | Aston Villa: top 8 | Aston Villa: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 69% | 99% | 34% | 95% |
| Barcelona win | 80% | >99% | 25% | 93% |
| Draw | 58% | 99% | 38% | 97% |
| Aston Villa win | 43% | 98% | 61% | 99% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP
- Galatasaray – Stuttgart
- Atlético de Madrid – Bayern München
- Feyenoord – Inter
- Bodø/Glimt – Lille
- LASK – Slovan Bratislava
- Manchester United – Roma
- Villarreal – Paris Saint-Germain
- AEK Athens – Real Madrid
- Fenerbahçe – Liverpool
- Borussia Dortmund – Real Betis
- Porto – Napoli
- PSV Eindhoven – Club Brugge
- Leipzig – Manchester City
- Lens – Como
- Slavia Praha – Arsenal
- Viking – Sabah