Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Tuesday 3 November, 21:00
Villarreal21st, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
Paris Saint-Germain1st, 3 pts
18%Villarreal win
23%Draw
59%Paris Saint-Germain win
The model gives Villarreal a 18% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Paris Saint-Germain 59%. Villarreal's chance of going through is 63% now: a win would take it to 87%, a defeat to 54%. Paris Saint-Germain's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 98%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Villarreal: top 8 | Villarreal: through | Paris Saint-Germain: top 8 | Paris Saint-Germain: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 5% | 63% | 74% | 99% |
| Villarreal win | 14% | 87% | 53% | 98% |
| Draw | 4% | 67% | 64% | 99% |
| Paris Saint-Germain win | 2% | 54% | 84% | >99% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
0–112%
0–211%
1–111%
1–210%
0–37%
0–06%
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP
- Galatasaray – Stuttgart
- Atlético de Madrid – Bayern München
- Barcelona – Aston Villa
- Feyenoord – Inter
- Bodø/Glimt – Lille
- LASK – Slovan Bratislava
- Manchester United – Roma
- AEK Athens – Real Madrid
- Fenerbahçe – Liverpool
- Borussia Dortmund – Real Betis
- Porto – Napoli
- PSV Eindhoven – Club Brugge
- Leipzig – Manchester City
- Lens – Como
- Slavia Praha – Arsenal
- Viking – Sabah