Knockout Math
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Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Tuesday 3 November, 18:45

Shakhtar Donetsk18th, 1 pts
–Matchday 4
Sporting CP6th, 3 pts
28%Shakhtar Donetsk win
26%Draw
46%Sporting CP win

The model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 28% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Sporting CP 46%. Shakhtar Donetsk's chance of going through is 44% now: a win would take it to 68%, a defeat to 30%. Sporting CP's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 78%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Shakhtar Donetsk: top 8Shakhtar Donetsk: throughSporting CP: top 8Sporting CP: through
Now2%44%21%89%
Shakhtar Donetsk win4%68%9%78%
Draw1%44%15%87%
Sporting CP win<1%30%32%97%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–28%
1–08%
0–07%

Other matchday 4 fixtures