Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Tuesday 3 November, 18:45
Shakhtar Donetsk18th, 1 pts
–Matchday 4
Sporting CP6th, 3 pts
28%Shakhtar Donetsk win
26%Draw
46%Sporting CP win
The model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 28% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Sporting CP 46%. Shakhtar Donetsk's chance of going through is 44% now: a win would take it to 68%, a defeat to 30%. Sporting CP's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 78%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Shakhtar Donetsk: top 8 | Shakhtar Donetsk: through | Sporting CP: top 8 | Sporting CP: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 2% | 44% | 21% | 89% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk win | 4% | 68% | 9% | 78% |
| Draw | 1% | 44% | 15% | 87% |
| Sporting CP win | <1% | 30% | 32% | 97% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–28%
1–08%
0–07%
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Galatasaray – Stuttgart
- Atlético de Madrid – Bayern München
- Barcelona – Aston Villa
- Feyenoord – Inter
- Bodø/Glimt – Lille
- LASK – Slovan Bratislava
- Manchester United – Roma
- Villarreal – Paris Saint-Germain
- AEK Athens – Real Madrid
- Fenerbahçe – Liverpool
- Borussia Dortmund – Real Betis
- Porto – Napoli
- PSV Eindhoven – Club Brugge
- Leipzig – Manchester City
- Lens – Como
- Slavia Praha – Arsenal
- Viking – Sabah