Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Wednesday 4 November, 18:45
Fenerbahçe19th, 1 pts
–Matchday 4
Liverpool14th, 3 pts
18%Fenerbahçe win
23%Draw
59%Liverpool win
The model gives Fenerbahçe a 18% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Liverpool 59%. Fenerbahçe's chance of going through is 59% now: a win would take it to 83%, a defeat to 50%. Liverpool's top-8 chance is 77% now: a win would take it to 86%, a defeat to 56%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Fenerbahçe: top 8 | Fenerbahçe: through | Liverpool: top 8 | Liverpool: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 4% | 59% | 77% | >99% |
| Fenerbahçe win | 12% | 83% | 56% | 99% |
| Draw | 4% | 63% | 69% | >99% |
| Liverpool win | 2% | 50% | 86% | >99% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
0–112%
0–211%
1–111%
1–210%
0–37%
0–06%
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP
- Galatasaray – Stuttgart
- Atlético de Madrid – Bayern München
- Barcelona – Aston Villa
- Feyenoord – Inter
- Bodø/Glimt – Lille
- LASK – Slovan Bratislava
- Manchester United – Roma
- Villarreal – Paris Saint-Germain
- AEK Athens – Real Madrid
- Borussia Dortmund – Real Betis
- Porto – Napoli
- PSV Eindhoven – Club Brugge
- Leipzig – Manchester City
- Lens – Como
- Slavia Praha – Arsenal
- Viking – Sabah