AEK Athens vs Real Madrid: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Wednesday 4 November, 18:45
AEK Athens16th, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Real Madrid13th, 3 pts
11%AEK Athens win
18%Draw
71%Real Madrid win
The model gives AEK Athens a 11% chance of winning, a draw 18% and Real Madrid 71%. AEK Athens's chance of going through is 42% now: a win would take it to 74%, a defeat to 36%. Real Madrid's top-8 chance is 81% now: a win would take it to 87%, a defeat to 57%. The most likely score is 0–2 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| AEK Athens: top 8 | AEK Athens: through | Real Madrid: top 8 | Real Madrid: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 2% | 42% | 81% | >99% |
| AEK Athens win | 7% | 74% | 57% | 99% |
| Draw | 2% | 48% | 70% | >99% |
| Real Madrid win | 1% | 36% | 87% | >99% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
0–213%
0–111%
0–39%
1–29%
1–18%
1–37%
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP
- Galatasaray – Stuttgart
- Atlético de Madrid – Bayern München
- Barcelona – Aston Villa
- Feyenoord – Inter
- Bodø/Glimt – Lille
- LASK – Slovan Bratislava
- Manchester United – Roma
- Villarreal – Paris Saint-Germain
- Fenerbahçe – Liverpool
- Borussia Dortmund – Real Betis
- Porto – Napoli
- PSV Eindhoven – Club Brugge
- Leipzig – Manchester City
- Lens – Como
- Slavia Praha – Arsenal
- Viking – Sabah