Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe: what's at stake in the Champions League?
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Matchday 5 · Wednesday 25 November, 21:00
Shakhtar Donetsk18th, 1 pts
–Matchday 5
Fenerbahçe19th, 1 pts
36%Shakhtar Donetsk win
26%Draw
38%Fenerbahçe win
The model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 36% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Fenerbahçe 38%. Shakhtar Donetsk's chance of going through is 44% now: a win would take it to 66%, a defeat to 26%. Fenerbahçe's chance of going through is 59% now: a win would take it to 79%, a defeat to 41%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Shakhtar Donetsk: top 8 | Shakhtar Donetsk: through | Fenerbahçe: top 8 | Fenerbahçe: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 2% | 44% | 4% | 59% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk win | 4% | 66% | 1% | 41% |
| Draw | 1% | 41% | 2% | 56% |
| Fenerbahçe win | <1% | 26% | 8% | 79% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Bodø/Glimt – LASK
- Galatasaray – Aston Villa
- Arsenal – Borussia Dortmund
- Como – AEK Athens
- Feyenoord – Porto
- Manchester City – Napoli
- Leipzig – Lens
- Real Madrid – PSV Eindhoven
- Slovan Bratislava – Real Betis
- Sabah – Barcelona
- Slavia Praha – Villarreal
- Atlético de Madrid – Viking
- Club Brugge – Liverpool
- Inter – Stuttgart
- Lille – Bayern München
- Paris Saint-Germain – Roma
- Sporting CP – Manchester United