Leipzig vs Lens: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 5 · Tuesday 24 November, 21:00
Leipzig32nd, 0 pts
–Matchday 5
Lens10th, 3 pts
50%Leipzig win
25%Draw
25%Lens win
The model gives Leipzig a 50% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Lens 25%. Leipzig's chance of going through is 57% now: a win would take it to 72%, a defeat to 36%. Lens's chance of going through is 76% now: a win would take it to 93%, a defeat to 66%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Leipzig: top 8 | Leipzig: through | Lens: top 8 | Lens: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 4% | 57% | 10% | 76% |
| Leipzig win | 6% | 72% | 4% | 66% |
| Draw | 2% | 47% | 8% | 78% |
| Lens win | 1% | 36% | 21% | 93% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Bodø/Glimt – LASK
- Galatasaray – Aston Villa
- Arsenal – Borussia Dortmund
- Como – AEK Athens
- Feyenoord – Porto
- Manchester City – Napoli
- Real Madrid – PSV Eindhoven
- Slovan Bratislava – Real Betis
- Sabah – Barcelona
- Slavia Praha – Villarreal
- Atlético de Madrid – Viking
- Club Brugge – Liverpool
- Inter – Stuttgart
- Shakhtar Donetsk – Fenerbahçe
- Lille – Bayern München
- Paris Saint-Germain – Roma
- Sporting CP – Manchester United