Knockout Math
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Sabah vs Barcelona: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Wednesday 25 November, 18:45

Sabah34th, 0 pts
–Matchday 5
Barcelona3rd, 3 pts
4%Sabah win
10%Draw
86%Barcelona win

The model gives Sabah a 4% chance of winning, a draw 10% and Barcelona 86%. Sabah's chance of going through is 2% now: a win would take it to 11%, a defeat to 1%. Barcelona's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 96%. The most likely score is 0–3 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Sabah: top 8Sabah: throughBarcelona: top 8Barcelona: through
Now<1%2%69%99%
Sabah win<1%11%39%96%
Draw0%2%49%98%
Barcelona win0%1%73%>99%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–313%
0–213%
0–410%
0–18%
1–37%
1–27%

Other matchday 5 fixtures