Lille vs Bayern München: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 5 · Wednesday 25 November, 21:00
Lille24th, 0 pts
–Matchday 5
Bayern München2nd, 3 pts
16%Lille win
22%Draw
62%Bayern München win
The model gives Lille a 16% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Bayern München 62%. Lille's chance of going through is 47% now: a win would take it to 74%, a defeat to 38%. Bayern München's top-8 chance is 83% now: a win would take it to 90%, a defeat to 64%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Lille: top 8 | Lille: through | Bayern München: top 8 | Bayern München: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 2% | 47% | 83% | >99% |
| Lille win | 7% | 74% | 64% | 99% |
| Draw | 2% | 51% | 76% | >99% |
| Bayern München win | 1% | 38% | 90% | 100% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
0–112%
0–211%
1–110%
1–210%
0–37%
1–36%
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Bodø/Glimt – LASK
- Galatasaray – Aston Villa
- Arsenal – Borussia Dortmund
- Como – AEK Athens
- Feyenoord – Porto
- Manchester City – Napoli
- Leipzig – Lens
- Real Madrid – PSV Eindhoven
- Slovan Bratislava – Real Betis
- Sabah – Barcelona
- Slavia Praha – Villarreal
- Atlético de Madrid – Viking
- Club Brugge – Liverpool
- Inter – Stuttgart
- Shakhtar Donetsk – Fenerbahçe
- Paris Saint-Germain – Roma
- Sporting CP – Manchester United