Knockout Math
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Paris Saint-Germain vs Roma: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Wednesday 25 November, 21:00

–Matchday 5
Roma17th, 1 pts
73%Paris Saint-Germain win
17%Draw
10%Roma win

The model gives Paris Saint-Germain a 73% chance of winning, a draw 17% and Roma 10%. Paris Saint-Germain's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 98%. Roma's chance of going through is 73% now: a win would take it to 93%, a defeat to 69%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Paris Saint-Germain: top 8Paris Saint-Germain: throughRoma: top 8Roma: through
Now74%99%8%73%
Paris Saint-Germain win80%>99%5%69%
Draw60%99%10%80%
Roma win48%98%25%93%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
1–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%

Other matchday 5 fixtures