Knockout Math
Latviski

Manchester United vs Leipzig: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Tuesday 8 December, 21:00

–Matchday 6
Leipzig32nd, 0 pts
48%Manchester United win
25%Draw
26%Leipzig win

The model gives Manchester United a 48% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Leipzig 26%. Manchester United's chance of going through is 86% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 74%. Leipzig's chance of going through is 57% now: a win would take it to 79%, a defeat to 44%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Manchester United: top 8Manchester United: throughLeipzig: top 8Leipzig: through
Now19%86%4%57%
Manchester United win29%95%1%44%
Draw13%83%2%58%
Leipzig win8%74%10%79%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%

Other matchday 6 fixtures