Knockout Math
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Aston Villa vs Paris Saint-Germain: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Tuesday 8 December, 21:00

Aston Villa11th, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
23%Aston Villa win
25%Draw
52%Paris Saint-Germain win

The model gives Aston Villa a 23% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Paris Saint-Germain 52%. Aston Villa's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 93%. Paris Saint-Germain's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 99%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Aston Villa: top 8Aston Villa: throughParis Saint-Germain: top 8Paris Saint-Germain: through
Now34%95%74%99%
Aston Villa win59%99%53%99%
Draw34%96%68%99%
Paris Saint-Germain win23%93%86%>99%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–112%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
0–07%

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