Knockout Math
Latviski

AEK Athens vs Galatasaray: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Tuesday 8 December, 21:00

AEK Athens16th, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
Galatasaray29th, 0 pts
31%AEK Athens win
26%Draw
43%Galatasaray win

The model gives AEK Athens a 31% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Galatasaray 43%. AEK Athens's chance of going through is 42% now: a win would take it to 68%, a defeat to 26%. Galatasaray's chance of going through is 44% now: a win would take it to 62%, a defeat to 25%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

AEK Athens: top 8AEK Athens: throughGalatasaray: top 8Galatasaray: through
Now2%42%2%44%
AEK Athens win4%68%<1%25%
Draw1%39%1%37%
Galatasaray win<1%26%3%62%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–09%
0–28%
0–07%

Other matchday 6 fixtures