Knockout Math
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Sporting CP vs Barcelona: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Wednesday 20 January, 21:00

Sporting CP6th, 3 pts
–Matchday 7
Barcelona3rd, 3 pts
23%Sporting CP win
25%Draw
52%Barcelona win

The model gives Sporting CP a 23% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Barcelona 52%. Sporting CP's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 85%. Barcelona's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to 100%, a defeat to 98%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Sporting CP: top 8Sporting CP: throughBarcelona: top 8Barcelona: through
Now21%89%69%99%
Sporting CP win41%98%47%98%
Draw21%91%61%99%
Barcelona win11%85%82%100%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–112%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
0–07%

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