Knockout Math
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Lens vs Manchester City: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Wednesday 20 January, 21:00

Lens10th, 3 pts
–Matchday 7
Manchester City8th, 3 pts
21%Lens win
24%Draw
55%Manchester City win

The model gives Lens a 21% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Manchester City 55%. Lens's chance of going through is 76% now: a win would take it to 92%, a defeat to 68%. Manchester City's chance of going through is 98% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 95%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Lens: top 8Lens: throughManchester City: top 8Manchester City: through
Now10%76%54%98%
Lens win23%92%30%95%
Draw9%79%43%98%
Manchester City win5%68%67%>99%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
1–07%

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