Knockout Math
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Fenerbahçe vs Villarreal: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Wednesday 20 January, 18:45

Fenerbahçe19th, 1 pts
–Matchday 7
Villarreal21st, 0 pts
37%Fenerbahçe win
26%Draw
36%Villarreal win

The model gives Fenerbahçe a 37% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Villarreal 36%. Fenerbahçe's chance of going through is 59% now: a win would take it to 79%, a defeat to 41%. Villarreal's chance of going through is 63% now: a win would take it to 82%, a defeat to 45%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Fenerbahçe: top 8Fenerbahçe: throughVillarreal: top 8Villarreal: through
Now4%59%5%63%
Fenerbahçe win8%79%1%45%
Draw2%56%3%61%
Villarreal win1%41%9%82%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

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