Leipzig vs Shakhtar Donetsk: what's at stake in the Champions League?
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Matchday 7 · Wednesday 20 January, 21:00
Leipzig32nd, 0 pts
–Matchday 7
Shakhtar Donetsk18th, 1 pts
60%Leipzig win
22%Draw
18%Shakhtar Donetsk win
The model gives Leipzig a 60% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Shakhtar Donetsk 18%. Leipzig's chance of going through is 57% now: a win would take it to 69%, a defeat to 32%. Shakhtar Donetsk's chance of going through is 44% now: a win would take it to 72%, a defeat to 33%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Leipzig: top 8 | Leipzig: through | Shakhtar Donetsk: top 8 | Shakhtar Donetsk: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 4% | 57% | 2% | 44% |
| Leipzig win | 6% | 69% | 1% | 33% |
| Draw | 1% | 45% | 1% | 49% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk win | 1% | 32% | 5% | 72% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–012%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%
Other matchday 7 fixtures
- Bodø/Glimt – Atlético de Madrid
- Galatasaray – Feyenoord
- AEK Athens – Roma
- Aston Villa – Borussia Dortmund
- Inter – Liverpool
- Porto – Slavia Praha
- Lille – Slovan Bratislava
- Real Madrid – LASK
- Stuttgart – Club Brugge
- Fenerbahçe – Villarreal
- Sabah – Napoli
- Como – Paris Saint-Germain
- Manchester United – Bayern München
- Lens – Manchester City
- Real Betis – Arsenal
- Sporting CP – Barcelona
- Viking – PSV Eindhoven