Manchester United vs Bayern München: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 7 · Wednesday 20 January, 21:00
Manchester United4th, 3 pts
–Matchday 7
Bayern München2nd, 3 pts
22%Manchester United win
24%Draw
53%Bayern München win
The model gives Manchester United a 22% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Bayern München 53%. Manchester United's chance of going through is 86% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 81%. Bayern München's top-8 chance is 83% now: a win would take it to 92%, a defeat to 66%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Manchester United: top 8 | Manchester United: through | Bayern München: top 8 | Bayern München: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 19% | 86% | 83% | >99% |
| Manchester United win | 38% | 96% | 66% | 99% |
| Draw | 19% | 89% | 78% | >99% |
| Bayern München win | 11% | 81% | 92% | 100% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
0–112%
1–112%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
1–07%
Other matchday 7 fixtures
- Bodø/Glimt – Atlético de Madrid
- Galatasaray – Feyenoord
- AEK Athens – Roma
- Aston Villa – Borussia Dortmund
- Inter – Liverpool
- Porto – Slavia Praha
- Lille – Slovan Bratislava
- Real Madrid – LASK
- Stuttgart – Club Brugge
- Fenerbahçe – Villarreal
- Sabah – Napoli
- Como – Paris Saint-Germain
- Leipzig – Shakhtar Donetsk
- Lens – Manchester City
- Real Betis – Arsenal
- Sporting CP – Barcelona
- Viking – PSV Eindhoven