Knockout Math
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Bodø/Glimt vs Atlético de Madrid: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Tuesday 19 January, 18:45

Bodø/Glimt36th, 0 pts
–Matchday 7
23%Bodø/Glimt win
25%Draw
52%Atlético de Madrid win

The model gives Bodø/Glimt a 23% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Atlético de Madrid 52%. Bodø/Glimt's chance of going through is 41% now: a win would take it to 67%, a defeat to 30%. Atlético de Madrid's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 77%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Bodø/Glimt: top 8Bodø/Glimt: throughAtlético de Madrid: top 8Atlético de Madrid: through
Now2%41%22%89%
Bodø/Glimt win5%67%8%77%
Draw1%42%14%87%
Atlético de Madrid win<1%30%32%96%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–112%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
0–07%

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