Knockout Math
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Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Wednesday 14 October, 21:00

Shakhtar Donetsk18th, 1 pts
–Matchday 2
AEK Athens16th, 3 pts
47%Shakhtar Donetsk win
26%Draw
28%AEK Athens win

The model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 47% chance of winning, a draw 26% and AEK Athens 28%. Shakhtar Donetsk's chance of going through is 44% now: a win would take it to 61%, a defeat to 24%. AEK Athens's chance of going through is 42% now: a win would take it to 68%, a defeat to 27%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Shakhtar Donetsk: top 8Shakhtar Donetsk: throughAEK Athens: top 8AEK Athens: through
Now2%44%2%42%
Shakhtar Donetsk win3%61%<1%27%
Draw1%36%1%40%
AEK Athens win<1%24%4%68%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
0–07%

Other matchday 2 fixtures