Knockout Math
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Galatasaray vs Barcelona: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Tuesday 13 October, 21:00

Galatasaray29th, 0 pts
–Matchday 2
Barcelona3rd, 3 pts
19%Galatasaray win
23%Draw
58%Barcelona win

The model gives Galatasaray a 19% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Barcelona 58%. Galatasaray's chance of going through is 44% now: a win would take it to 70%, a defeat to 35%. Barcelona's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 98%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Galatasaray: top 8Galatasaray: throughBarcelona: top 8Barcelona: through
Now2%44%69%99%
Galatasaray win6%70%46%98%
Draw2%47%60%99%
Barcelona win<1%35%80%>99%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–07%
0–36%

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