Knockout Math
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Lens vs Sporting CP: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Tuesday 13 October, 18:45

Lens10th, 3 pts
–Matchday 2
Sporting CP6th, 3 pts
37%Lens win
26%Draw
36%Sporting CP win

The model gives Lens a 37% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Sporting CP 36%. Lens's chance of going through is 76% now: a win would take it to 90%, a defeat to 62%. Sporting CP's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 82%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Lens: top 8Lens: throughSporting CP: top 8Sporting CP: through
Now10%76%21%89%
Lens win18%90%10%82%
Draw7%74%16%89%
Sporting CP win3%62%35%98%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

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