Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe: what's at stake in the Champions League?
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Matchday 2 · Wednesday 14 October, 21:00
Aston Villa11th, 3 pts
–Matchday 2
Fenerbahçe19th, 1 pts
58%Aston Villa win
23%Draw
19%Fenerbahçe win
The model gives Aston Villa a 58% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Fenerbahçe 19%. Aston Villa's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 87%. Fenerbahçe's chance of going through is 59% now: a win would take it to 83%, a defeat to 50%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Aston Villa: top 8 | Aston Villa: through | Fenerbahçe: top 8 | Fenerbahçe: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 34% | 95% | 4% | 59% |
| Aston Villa win | 44% | 99% | 2% | 50% |
| Draw | 23% | 93% | 4% | 63% |
| Fenerbahçe win | 15% | 87% | 12% | 83% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%
Other matchday 2 fixtures
- Lens – Sporting CP
- Sabah – Slavia Praha
- Arsenal – Lille
- Atlético de Madrid – Manchester United
- Inter – Club Brugge
- Galatasaray – Barcelona
- Leipzig – PSV Eindhoven
- Viking – Bayern München
- Villarreal – Napoli
- Feyenoord – Como
- LASK – Liverpool
- Roma – Real Madrid
- Shakhtar Donetsk – AEK Athens
- Bodø/Glimt – Borussia Dortmund
- Manchester City – Paris Saint-Germain
- Real Betis – Porto
- Slovan Bratislava – Stuttgart