Knockout Math
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Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Wednesday 14 October, 21:00

Aston Villa11th, 3 pts
–Matchday 2
Fenerbahçe19th, 1 pts
58%Aston Villa win
23%Draw
19%Fenerbahçe win

The model gives Aston Villa a 58% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Fenerbahçe 19%. Aston Villa's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 87%. Fenerbahçe's chance of going through is 59% now: a win would take it to 83%, a defeat to 50%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Aston Villa: top 8Aston Villa: throughFenerbahçe: top 8Fenerbahçe: through
Now34%95%4%59%
Aston Villa win44%99%2%50%
Draw23%93%4%63%
Fenerbahçe win15%87%12%83%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%

Other matchday 2 fixtures