Knockout Math
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CSKA Sofia vs Thun: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 17 December, 21:00

CSKA SofiaLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 6
ThunLeague phase not started yet
45%CSKA Sofia win
26%Draw
29%Thun win

The model gives CSKA Sofia a 45% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Thun 29%. CSKA Sofia's chance of going through is 53% now: a win would take it to 71%, a defeat to 32%. Thun's chance of going through is 48% now: a win would take it to 73%, a defeat to 32%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

CSKA Sofia: top 8CSKA Sofia: throughThun: top 8Thun: through
Now8%53%6%48%
CSKA Sofia win13%71%2%32%
Draw4%44%4%47%
Thun win2%32%15%73%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%

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