Knockout Math
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Feyenoord vs Leipzig: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00

Feyenoord33rd, 0 pts
–Matchday 8
Leipzig32nd, 0 pts
36%Feyenoord win
26%Draw
38%Leipzig win

The model gives Feyenoord a 36% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Leipzig 38%. Feyenoord's chance of going through is 47% now: a win would take it to 67%, a defeat to 32%. Leipzig's chance of going through is 57% now: a win would take it to 76%, a defeat to 39%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Feyenoord: top 8Feyenoord: throughLeipzig: top 8Leipzig: through
Now3%47%4%57%
Feyenoord win5%67%1%39%
Draw1%43%2%54%
Leipzig win1%32%8%76%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%

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